After four straight mostly mediocre seasons, the Chicago Bears look like a team on the rise thanks to general manager Ryan Poles. They lucked into the first overall pick in 2022, courtesy of Lovie Smith winning his final game as head coach of the Houston Texans. Poles parlayed that pick into a king’s ransom, fleecing derelict Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper.
Incredibly, the Bears now look spoiled for choice with yet another number-one overall pick on the way. Here are the many paths and critical choices Poles must make to continue Chicago’s upward momentum moving into 2024.
Make Your Case: Pros and cons of Bears holding onto Justin Fields
The question on the mind of all Chicago Bears fans for the last couple of years is whether they should put all their eggs in the Justin Fields basket.
The Bears’ foundation
The Chicago heist that started it all
The tried and true strategy of trading with clueless victims works in either fantasy football or real life. Poles found his mark in Tepper, who wanted a franchise QB come hell or high water.
In exchange for Bryce Young, Chicago received WR D.J. Moore, a 2023 first-round pick (No. 9 overall), a 2023 second-round pick (No. 61 overall), 2024’s number one overall pick, and a 2025 second-round pick. That’s larceny of the highest order and the foundation on which the Bears could build an absolute monster.
Of course, accumulating picks only counts as the first step among many in building a contender. Now, Poles faces a multitude of choices. If he chooses wisely, Chicago could arise as a superpower in the NFC North. If he judges poorly, the Bears will sink back into the shadows, having squandered their Carolina bounty.
The Justin Fields conundrum
Fields or Caleb Williams/Drake Maye?
Obviously, quarterback is the most important position in American sports. Therefore, choosing the right one represents the tide that will float all boats. As a starter, Justin Fields is 10-27 in his career and has put up modest passing statistics this season: 6.8 yards per attempt (T-21st), 61.0 completion percentage (28th), and 85.8 passer rating (21st).
| Justin Fields 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Yards/Attempt | Completion % | Passer Rating |
| Field Stats | 6.8 | 61.0 | 85.8 |
| NFL Rank | T-21st | 28th | 21st |
He’s also thrown 14 touchdowns against eight interceptions while scrambling for 488 yards and two TDs. Despite the humble statistics, Fields has improved each year in most respects. The question remains: is it enough?
His 85.8 passer rating and completion percentage of 61.0 essentially stayed the same. Meanwhile, his passing yards per game improved dramatically to 201.2 yards passing per game (22nd) from 149.5 (last) in 2022. However, his yards per attempt mark is down from 7.1.
| Justin Fields 2022 vs. 2023 Comparison | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Yards/Attempt | Completion % | Pass Yards/Game |
| 2023 Season | 6.8 | 61.0 | 201.2 |
| Compared to 2022 Season | Down (7.1) | Up (60.4) | Up (149.5) |
Poles must compare his evaluation of top prospects like Caleb Williams and Drake May against the most realistic outcome for Fields. He also must take into account their contracts.
Fields remains cheap for one more year, but the team must decide on his pricier fifth-year option and a market level extension thereafter. A new rookie contract resets the clock with years of economic value that can be diverted into the rest of the roster.
Regardless of contract status, Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus must go with the QB that gives the Bears a championship ceiling. Despite plenty of flashes, would you bet your job on Fields as a top-10 QB?
A Bears shell game
Many trade avenues to ponder for Poles and company
Besides weighing Fields vs. one of the top prospects, Poles must also decide between the haul he could receive from trading the number one overall pick against the return of a Fields’ trade.
Clearly, the top pick will yield far more than Fields, but is that difference enough to keep Fields with his pricey impending extension and incremental on-field improvements? In 2021, Sam Darnold fetched a second, a fourth, and a sixth-round draft pick. We can safely assume that a potential Fields trade nets at least that much.
If the Bears do decide to stick with Fields, which feels like the safer and more likely outcome, they’re probably not going to waste the top pick on a guy who doesn’t play QB. That would mean they would trade out of that top pick for the second straight year.
There are tons of teams in need of a QB right now, the most notable of which would be the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, half of the NFC East, and many more.
Chicago would have no problem finding a trade partner, and one would imagine that the haul would be even higher than what they got in the Panthers trade last year, as Williams and Maye are considered much better prospects than Young. In the Young deal, they got two first-rounders, two second-rounders, and a top 15 wideout; they should be able to squeeze even more out of a deal for the 2024 No. 1 overall pick.
It’s also reasonable for Poles to trade Fields and hitch his employment status to his own hand-picked quarterback, as Fields is a relic from the previous regime. He also might consider replacing Matt Eberflus with an offensive-minded head coach to pair with his new prized signal caller. Although, rumor has it that Eberflus will return on the strength of their burgeoning defense.
They’ve got plenty of draft ammunition in the war chest, along with a sizable amount of cap space to build a true contender around a promising rookie with a cheap contract. Whatever path Poles takes will ultimately decide the Bears’ future—and his own.
All statistics
Leave a Reply