Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., an Atlanta Falcons first-round draft selection, talks at a press conference on Friday, April 26, 2024, in Flowery Branch, Georgia. (Photo by John Bazemore/AP) • The Falcons prioritise having a quarterback succession plan above all other options. In other words, Atlanta is selecting a quarterback succession plan over any one player at No. 8 overall. That’s not weird, but it’s definitely unique. The Green Bay Packers have found success using a similar tactic: they have chosen their future quarterback in the first round twice in a row, years before they needed to use him on the field, and they have witnessed his success come right away when they finally made the switch. • Create your own mock draft by using PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator. You can trade players and picks to create a mock draft for your preferred NFL team. 6 minutes is the estimated reading time. For other draft tools, go here: 2024 Player Profiles, 2024 Mock Drafts, 2024 Draft Guide, 2024 Mock Draft Simulator, and 2024 NCAA Premium Stats After signing Kirk Cousins to a $180 million contract only weeks prior, the Atlanta Falcons made one of the most surprising draft selections in NFL history when they selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Taking into account all of the different factors involved, the move is unusual. The choice was heavily criticised, and most analysts gave the Falcons the lowest selection marks since even astute NFL assessors could not find any sense in the strategy. I’m not here to support the move in and of itself, but rather to point out that it isn’t foolish or nonsensical. The team’s approach is highly realistic and consistent with previous decisions they have made. One complaint was that, although he was the fifth-best quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. was rated 31st on the consensus big board.
He was chosen by Atlanta 23 spots ahead of his big board rank as the fourth quarterback off the board. In general, teams that deviate from the consensus board have a poor track record, and players who are designated “reaches” usually perform worse than those whose ranks on the consensus board align with them. But this was no ordinary draft, with Penix obviously rated higher by the Falcons than the majority of other players. The fact that they don’t seem to have been alone in that regard is crucial, though. It appears that at least some NFL evaluators think Penix is a better prospect than the consensus board because several other teams have reportedly placed Penix at the top of their prospect rankings. The Falcons weren’t acting alone in this situation. Before the national championship game, he was even listed in that vicinity, according to the draft narrative about his stock. Following Penix’s College Football Playoff victory over Texas, there was buzz that he was suddenly a mid-first-round prospect who might break into the top 10 by April. After that, Michigan steamrolled Washington, and over the next four hours, his reputation took a complete nosedive. Perhaps the NFL just never adjusted for that one game versus a superior opponent. The Plan for Succession It’s also just been a few months since we celebrated the Green Bay Packers’ deciphering of the quarterback development code. The Packers have chosen their future quarterback in the first round twice in a row, both times ahead of schedule, and have seen him succeed right away when they did make the switch. While Jordan Love was sidelined for the same three years as Aaron Rodgers before being handed the keys to the team, Rodgers was drafted in 2005 and didn’t receive the job until the 2008 season. Despite being established starters in the past, other quarterbacks have been selected with high picks in the draft. A few months after Troy Aikman’s debut season, the Cowboys finished 1-15, thus Dallas used a first-round supplemental draft pick on Steve Walsh, who would go on to be selected first overall in the next draft. Even though John Elway was still in the middle of his career, Denver selected Tommy Maddox in the first round of the 1992 draft. The strategy has been even more prevalent when starters have been on borrowed time.With Alex Smith firmly established as the team’s starter, Patrick Mahomes was chosen—in fact, he was traded up for. As Kirk Cousins is 35 years old and recovering from an Achilles injury, it makes complete sense to start preparing for his eventual replacement. Although it may have happened a year earlier than most clubs would have liked, the Falcons could face a tampering penalty that would cost them valuable draft picks. Additionally, Cousins might be talented enough to push their future picks later in the draft. The Price of Opportunity The fact that the No. 8 overall pick was utilised to accomplish this move is what truly sets it apart. Dallas was unaware at the time that Walsh was taken with a pick that was far higher than Rodgers, Love, and Maddox, all of whom were selected in the 20s. The Falcons have effectively chosen to prioritise a succession plan over any individual player they may choose with the eighth overall pick. That’s not weird, but it’s definitely unique. The offence, where you would normally anticipate resources to be allocated to maximise Cousins’ chances of success, is already well-stocked on the team. It was anticipated that the Falcons would select first in the defensive draft. While individual defensive players can have an impact, they are rarely game-changing. For more than ten years, having a flawless quarterback succession plan can change everything. The Falcons see this as just increasing the likelihood that their next quarterback gets off to a quick start, even if it means giving up one defence for the time being and around half of his rookie contract surplus value. That is, if they think there is value in a quarterback learning and maturing on the sideline. While it undoubtedly decreases their chances of success in 2024, trying to balance winning the next season with long-term success is not an illogical tactic. The Kansas City Chiefs traded wide receiver Tyreek Hill because it was the right move for the team’s long-term success without seriously hurting their chances of winning the following season. This is not to say that the move increased their odds of winning the following season. While Penix is the quarterback the franchise feels is the one who can win for the next ten years after Cousins, Cousins is good enough for the Falcons to fight for the division right away and create noise in the postseason. The fact that he will turn 24 this season shouldn’t have a significant impact on the assessment. The entire hypothesis is based on the notion that there is room for improvement from the sidelines in the NFL; thus, the pertinent data is not just his age but also their assessment of his ceiling in absolute terms. Penix will start at 26, giving him a decade or more if Cousins plays two more years before they try to get out of his contract. The Final Word Whatever else may be going on, the Falcons made one of the most unconventional draft selections in NFL history when they chose Michael Penix Jr. just a few weeks after obtaining Kirk Cousins in free agency. It’s one of the biggest stories in years, and since we’ll never know how the counterfactual would turn out, we’ll never be able to know for sure if it was the right decision. The Falcons will believe that they made the right decision if Penix develops into a high-level starter. It’s still pure speculation, though, as they have no idea how the team may be affected by the guy they would have chosen instead. We all enjoy watching the NFL draft because of this.
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